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By Mark McGillivray (eds.)

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Extra resources for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals

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5, and (ii) an accounting approach based on age structure and net enrolments, removing older, less-literate people from the population and adding those graduating Projecting Progress 23 from school who are assumed to be literate. 5. • Separate rural and urban estimates are made by using the ratio of rural to urban incidence, based on observed values where available and modelled (as a function of poverty, urbanization, education and regional dummies) when not available. Income poverty Early estimates of progress towards reducing income poverty come from studies conducted by the Institute of Social Studies for the Sida 2015 project (hereinafter the ISS study, Hanmer et al.

Even the most pessimistic estimates suggest nonetheless that prevalence will decline, reflecting the belief that within 15 years (by around 2020) there will be no new AIDS cases. As AIDS in Africa is brought somewhat under control, attention is shifting to Asia, where the epidemic is in its early stages: the number of AIDS-related deaths in Asia will quadruple in the next 15 to 20 years, compared with an increase of about a third in Africa. 0 Note: More developed are Russia and USA. Source: UN Population Division.

In general this will be because we assume lower elasticities than those used by the World Bank, especially for high-inequality countries, so the rate of poverty reduction as a consequence of growth is less. However, in the case of Africa, our estimates are more positive. This discrepancy is most likely caused by the World Bank using recent country-specific poverty estimates not available to us. Discrepancies also arise from both differing assumed growth rates and data revisions to poverty estimates in the base year (1990).

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